Why haven’t higher gas prices hit German power prices yet?
The expectation after the Iran conflict was straightforward: higher gas prices, higher gas burn and higher carbon costs should have pushed German electricity prices up. Yet the data shows the opposite: EPEX spot prices are lower, distributions are softer and the move is statistically significant. At the same time, gas-to-power generation has increased, carbon prices are higher than in 2025 and futures still point to stronger summer pricing. So why is the expected transmission into power prices not showing up?
