How governments assess the energy market using long-term power price scenarios

How do government institutions strategically assess the energy market - with long-term power price scenarios?

Electricity prices are a key indicator of the performance and stability of the energy system - and are of strategic relevance for many political decisions. Whether security of supply, location attractiveness, subsidy policy or regulatory framework conditions: Anyone setting the direction today needs a clear picture of how the market will develop tomorrow. 

The changing energy market - uncertainty is becoming the new normal 

Government agencies are faced with the challenge of evaluating political measures in a volatile environment: 

• rising share of volatile renewables 

• high price fluctuations on the spot and futures market 

• geopolitical risks and supply crises 

• unclear market effects due to regulatory intervention (e.g. price brakes, market caps) 

• long-term decarbonisation targets (Net Zero, EU Green Deal) 

This raises the key question: How can political measures be evaluated assuming realistic electricity price trends - and how can risks or misguided incentives be identified at an early stage? 

The solution: European power price scenarios from Montel 

Montel offers market-orientated and well-founded power price scenarios up to 2060 - for 18 European countries. The scenarios can support government institutions in modelling the long-term effects of political and regulatory decisions. 

What the European power price scenarios offer: 

Three potential development paths: 

• Central Scenario: continuation of current trends and political decisions 

• Tension Scenario: geopolitical tensions & slower renewable expansion 

• GoHydrogen: accelerated transformation & hydrogen ramp-up 

Or, on request, scenarios with your own assumptions, which are discussed with our modellers and converted into your own customer-specific scenario 

• Hourly price data for 18 European markets 

• Integration of external influencing variables: CO₂ prices, commodity markets, weather data 

• Based on recognised studies and sources: ENTSO-E, World Energy Outlook, etc. 

Use cases for ministries, regulatory authorities and planning institutions 

Policy impact assessment:

How do CO₂ price paths, expansion paths or market regulation affect electricity prices, security of supply and location attractiveness? 

Analyse support regimes:

Are existing market incentives for investments in RE plants, storage or hydrogen projects sustainable in the long term?  

Estimates of expansion paths for net-zero targets: What long-term expansion targets for renewables and flexibility options would need to be adopted to meet net-zero targets 

Complementary: the power price scenario swarms 

The scenario warms can be used to map probabilities within a scenario - e.g. how likely it is that prices will fall below or exceed a certain threshold value. For government decision-makers, this means: 

• Transparency in price risks 

• Well-founded cost-benefit analyses 

• Strategic preparation for extreme events 

Strategic energy policy needs reliable scenarios 

Any government institution that wants to shape markets, promote investments or set up long-term programmes today needs reliable, independent price scenarios. Montel offers the necessary neutrality, data depth and modelling expertise - for better decisions in the interests of the market, the environment and society. 

Reliable, independent price scenarios help institutions make better energy policy decisions—for markets, net-zero goals, and long-term security.