From Market Moves to Market Shifts: Medium-Term vs Long-Term Power Price Analysis
Montel compares medium-term and long-term power price analysis across Central Europe, the Nordics and the Baltics.
Written by Montel's power market analysts, Josephine Steppat and Liubov Koroleva.
This report from Montel's power market analysts sets medium-term and long-term power price analysis side by side. It explains why both are built on the same fundamental modelling approach, where they diverge by region, and how to choose the right tool depending on whether you're managing risk this quarter or planning an investment decades out.
Inside the report
A shared foundation. How Montel Energy Brainpool's Power2Sim model and the EMPS model underpin both products across Central Europe, the Nordics and the Baltics
Same approach, different focus. Why medium-term analysis models short-term drivers in detail, while long-term scenarios track structural change
Influencing factors by time horizon. A comparison table covering geopolitical risk, plant availability, weather, CO2 prices, renewables and flexibility options
Weather modelling by region. How Central Europe's standardised weather year and Weather Swarm approach differ from the Nordic and Baltic 30-scenario model
Data sources and scenario approach. Best-guess forecasting versus multi-pathway scenario planning, region by region
Update frequencies and use cases. Why medium-term forecasts update daily or twice weekly, and long-term scenarios update quarterly
Simulation horizons. A full comparison table of forecast horizons, overlap periods and inputs across both regions
What you'll learn
Why medium-term and long-term power price products share one modelling foundation, even though they're built on different underlying models by region
How the relative importance of weather, plant outages, commodity prices and decarbonisation shifts as the time horizon lengthens
The difference between Central Europe's standardised weather year approach and the Nordic and Baltic model's use of 30 historical weather scenarios
When to use a single best-guess scenario versus a multi-pathway approach with high, low and base cases
Which forecast to reach for depending on your task, from hedging and portfolio management to investment decisions and project financing
How medium-term and long-term forecasts can produce different price expectations for the same overlapping years, and why that's expected rather than a contradiction
Who this is for
Traders and risk managers who need to know which forecast horizon fits a given hedging or exposure decision
Portfolio managers and analysts moving between short-term positioning and long-term asset valuation
Investment and project finance teams assessing power price risk over decades rather than months
Procurement and corporate energy teams building forecasts into budgeting and PPA valuation