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Make confident decisions when uncertainty is highest

Our Montel Medium-Term analysis support decision making across trading, risk, procurement and asset planning.

Thousands of energy specialists trust Montel's market insight

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Energy market insights for the medium-term

    Timeframe specific drivers

    As uncertainty increases, single-point forecasts become less meaningful and the cost of wrong assumptions rises. Structural drivers such as weather variability, demand evolution and system constraints start to dominate.

    Beyond standard forecasts

    As the time horizon extends, price formation is increasingly shaped by fundamental drivers such as fuel and CO₂ costs, demand developments and system constraints. Understanding how these factors influence medium-term price levels becomes essential for informed decision-making.

    Rather than relying solely on forward curves, decision-makers benefit from a structured, model-based view that links market pricing to underlying fundamentals and system dynamics.

    Accessible, actionable outputs

    Montel’s medium-term market analysis combines advanced system and market modelling to provide a structured view of electricity price development from 1 month to 5 years ahead.

    By linking prices transparently to fuel, CO₂, demand and system dynamics - and benchmarking modeled results against market forward prices — it supports informed hedging, portfolio positioning, procurement and asset planning decisions.

    Example outputs:

    • Model-based medium-term price trajectories

    • Comparison of modeled prices and forward market prices

    • Transparent fuel, CO₂ and demand assumptions

    • Marginal cost-based price formation (SRMC)

    • System optimisation insights (hydro, constraints, seasonality)

    • Regional and cross-border market interactions

Multiple models for robust results

Explore how different assumptions about weather, demand, fuel prices and system constraints translate into market outcomes over time - helping you stress-test decisions and prepare for multiple scenarios.

Different decisions benefit from different modelling approaches. Montel’s medium-term insights are built on two distinct approaches, each designed to reflect different aspects of power market behaviour.

  • Our modelling approaches

    System-based hydro & power market modelling (EMPS)

    Focuses on detailed system dynamics such as hydro reservoirs, inflow patterns, demand distribution, and operational constraints; supporting medium-term assessments where system behaviour and seasonality are critical.

  • Fundamental European power market simulation (Power2Sim)

    Simulates European power markets based on fundamental price formation, marginal costs, cross-border flows, and scenario assumptions; supporting medium-term price and market outlooks across regions.

Who benefits from medium-term data?

  • Portfolio Managers

    Supporting risk and positioning decisions

    Gain a structured view of how prices and market conditions may evolve under different assumptions. Medium-term scenarios help portfolio managers assess risk, stress-test strategies and adjust positioning across seasons and market environments.

  • Analysts

    Building and validating medium-term market views

    Access consistent, scenario-based insight to analyse price formation, system dynamics and sensitivities across markets. Medium-term modelling outputs support analysis, benchmarking, and the development of robust market narratives.

  • Asset & Operations Managers

    Planning assets and operations under uncertainty

    Use medium-term insight to understand how system constraints, seasonality, and demand evolution may impact asset performance over time. Scenario-based views support maintenance planning, availability assumptions, and operational decision-making in a changing market environment.

Trusted by energy professionals across Europe

Customer testimonials

Learn why professionals just like you trust Montel to provide energy market data and analytics

Montel Analytics is easy to use and conveniently gathers all relevant energy market data in one location.

Sebastian Granner Lund

Managing Partner

For more quantitative work, we appreciate the services and offerings from Montel Analytics, which provides a stream-lined solution for a lot of our data and forecast needs.

danske commodities
Rasmus Elbaek Hedegaard

Quantitative Analyst

Montel Analytics and its APIs are user-friendly and helpful. It is my go-to place for analysing energy market data.

Sumit Sial

Product owner - energy trading