From market noise to clear decisions: understanding energy value daily

In such environments, having a structured and reliable way to monitor price developments becomes essential. Price Forward Curves (PFCs) serve as a standardized, day-to-day tool to keep track of power and commodity markets and to evaluate how individual volume profiles relate to current market prices.  

They provide a common analytical basis across different functions. Whether in sales, procurement, portfolio management, or risk management, PFCs help to align market views and support consistent valuation approaches. Their application is not limited to one specific type of position—they can be used for consumption profiles, individual production assets, entire portfolios, or OTC delivery profiles, where the origin and structure of volumes are relevant. 

What can be analysed with a PFC? 

Using a Price Forward Curve allows market participants to systematically assess and interpret their positions. Typical questions that can be addressed include: 

• What is my production or consumption worth at wholesale market prices?  

• What is the total value of my portfolio?  

• How much risk is contained in my open (unhedged) positions?  

• Which contracts contribute most to my current risk exposure?  

• What is a fair value for a specific customer schedule?  

By linking volume profiles—often on an hourly basis—with forward prices, a volume-weighted price can be calculated. This makes it possible to translate operational profiles directly into a market-based valuation. 

A brief look at how PFCs work 

A Price Forward Curve is based on a combination of historical futures and spot prices, as well as regenerative infeed and consumption data, sourced from Montel. 

Different modeling approaches are available, ranging from econometric and statistical models to fundamental stack or merit-order models. These models are calibrated on a monthly basis, while the curves themselves can be calculated using daily settlement prices or intraday futures data, with updates possible up to every two minutes. 

What supports the application of PFCs 

To ensure usability in day-to-day work, several aspects play a role: 

• Daily quality assurance (QA) of the curves  

• Multiple PFC models and variants to reflect different customer needs  

• Flexible formats and delivery options such as .csv, .xlsx, API, or via email, Montel Online, and FTP  

• Access to analyst expertise for support and interpretation  

This allows PFCs to be integrated into different workflows and systems, depending on how they are used within an organization. 

Outlook 

The Price Forward Curve provides a structured starting point for understanding market value. In further applications, it can be extended—for example through simulations—to support more advanced evaluations. This includes use cases such as the assessment of gas supply contracts or the valuation of photovoltaic (PV) assets under different market scenarios. Follow our blog or ask us directly to learned about the advanced applications.