Energy market model performance: accuracy, bias and trading value
As energy markets grow more volatile and are increasingly influenced by weather, policy, and interconnector factors, the importance of forecasting model performance has never been greater. While point forecasts may seem accurate, they can give a misleading sense of certainty without thorough validation. Analysts, traders, and risk managers require models that not only fit past data but also adapt to regime shifts, structural changes, and actual trading scenarios. Validating these models serves as a crucial link between theoretical development and business application, ensuring forecasts are trustworthy, unbiased, and useful for decision-making in fast-paced markets.
