Guarantees of Origin Price Outlook to 2060
GO prices have swung from below €1/MWh to several euros and back again in just a few years. This report unpacks why and what two very different regulatory paths could mean for prices through 2060.
Report overview
Guarantees of Origin (GOs) are the certificates that let companies and suppliers prove their electricity came from renewable sources and they're becoming a real market in their own right, not just a compliance checkbox.
This report walks through how the GO system actually works, where it's traded, and what has driven prices from near-zero in 2021 to sharp spikes in 2022–23 and back down again since. From there, it introduces Montel Energy Brainpool's fundamental valuation model built on our Power2Sim power market model and long-term price scenarios to project GO prices by technology and country all the way out to 2060.
Key takeaways
History won't predict what's next. Past GO prices tell you what happened, not where things are headed, supply, demand and regulation each need to be modelled separately.
Two futures, two very different price levels. A "Market-Driven Reference" path keeps supply ahead of demand and prices low. An "Accelerated Decarbonisation" path tightens supply and lifts prices substantially.
New demand is emerging fast. Green hydrogen production and the buildout of data centres are becoming meaningful new sources of GO demand, alongside corporate sustainability reporting.
Regulation is doing a lot of the work. Subsidy rules, hydrogen rules (RFNBO), and reporting frameworks like CSRD all shape how many certificates reach the market and how badly buyers want them.
Not all GOs are priced the same. Technology, asset age and country of origin all create real price premiums, even as cross-border trading pulls standard products toward a common European benchmark.
Who should download this report?
Energy suppliers
Anyone sourcing or pricing GOs for green electricity products, and needing a defensible long-term view for contracts and disclosure.
Renewable asset owners and investors
Teams assessing GOs as a genuine revenue line for existing or planned wind, solar and hydro assets.
Corporate energy and sustainability buyers
Procurement and ESG teams managing Scope 2 reporting, PPAs, and CSRD-driven sustainability commitments.
Traders and risk managers
Anyone hedging or trading GO futures on EEX who needs a fundamental anchor behind the screen prices.
Why should you download this report?
A price horizon almost no one else publishes. Most GO analysis stops at next year's auction. This model runs to 2060.
Built on real fundamentals, not guesswork. The valuation model draws on Montel's Power2Sim market model plus Eurostat, IEA and AIB data on issuance and cancellation.
Two clear scenarios, not one uncertain number. See how prices diverge under a moderate energy transition versus an accelerated one and plan for both.
Free, no strings. Eighteen pages, straight to the point, from Montel's own analyst team.
Get the full price outlook
Read how Montel Energy Brainpool models Guarantee of Origin prices by technology and country, through to 2060.