Geopolitical Outlook – February 2026
Geopolitical risks shaping Europe’s energy future
Understanding risk in Europe’s energy transition
From border tensions to election results, the global geopolitical landscape continues to shape energy security, market dynamics, and policy priorities in 2026.
In this February update, Montel’s analysts provide a clear overview of the main political, structural, and military risk factors affecting the European energy sector. Drawing on scenario mapping and regional analysis, the report focuses on how these risks intersect with decarbonisation goals, cross-border trade, and the long-term investment outlook.
What’s inside the report
Three structural forces that frame geopolitical energy risk:
Fragmentation of global cooperation
Interventionism through subsidies and protectionist policy
Politicisation of energy and climate narratives
Country-level risk highlights across Europe, including:
Persistent uncertainty in Ukraine and Eastern Europe
Tensions around the Arctic and North Sea
Key elections and political transitions in 2026
The evolving role of NATO and the EU in energy security
What to watch in 2026:
Critical infrastructure threats
Energy as a foreign policy tool
The role of military strategy in market disruptions
Balancing national sovereignty with EU energy goals
Why download this report
This report helps analysts, market participants, and policy stakeholders interpret geopolitical signals through an energy lens. Whether you are assessing risk exposure, reviewing investment plans, or tracking regulatory trends, Montel’s geopolitical outlook provides the context you need to stay ahead.