European price sensitive curtailment report 2026

Commercial curtailment retreated across most of Europe in the first half of 2026 in seven of the nine markets we measure. But look closer and a different story emerges. Germany is curtailing more renewable power than ever, even as its negative price hours fall. France is curtailing far less, even as its negative price hours rise.

This report explains why, market by market, and what it means for the second half of the year.

What you'll learn

• Why Germany is curtailing deeper, not more often: tighter subsidy rules and a shift to quarter-hourly settlement mean more capacity switches off the moment prices cross zero, even with fewer negative hours overall

• The central puzzle of this edition: why French curtailment fell 32% while its negative price hours climbed, and how must-run nuclear, feed-in contracts and a late-June heatwave explain the inversion

• Which markets are genuinely easing: the Netherlands, Finland and Belgium all saw real structural relief, driven by a solar plateau, a Nordic hydro deficit and nuclear maintenance respectively

• Why deep price crashes don't drive the biggest volumes: a case study showing that long, shallow negative-price days curtail more renewable energy than brief, severe ones

• Where Southern Europe fits in: Spain's grid security curtailment climbed six-fold year-on-year, a network story rather than a price one, kept separate from the commercial figures throughout

• What the full year could look like: EnAppSys's own extrapolation for six key markets, and why it should be read as a direction of travel, not a forecast

• Why weather is now a structural risk: heatwaves are increasingly deciding both curtailment and security of supply in the same moment

Inside the report

• Pan-European comparison across ten monitored markets, Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025

• Country-by-country breakdowns, with dedicated spotlights on Germany and France

• Day-by-day case study contrasting Germany's deepest price days against its heaviest curtailment days

• Full-year outlook comparing 2025 actuals against 2026 model extrapolations

• Context section on Spain, Portugal and Italy, built from grid operator data and kept apart from the commercial figures

• Full methodology and sources

Who this is for

• Energy traders and analysts tracking diverging price behaviour across Germany, France and the wider continent

• Renewable asset owners and PPA holders assessing exposure to negative pricing and evolving subsidy rules

• Storage, electrolyser and flexibility developers sizing the opportunity behind Europe's growing midday surplus

• Policy and regulatory professionals following how national rules are reshaping curtailment behaviour market by market

Based on the Montel EnAppSys day-ahead curve model, with data to 1 July 2026.