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Reports European electricity market summary Q2 2026

European electricity market summary Q2 2026

Record solar output, a scorching June heatwave and lingering shocks from the Strait of Hormuz collided in Q2 2026, pulling European power prices in opposite directions at once.

European electricity market summary Q2 2026 overview

Q2 2026 was a quarter of extremes. Solar generation smashed its previous record by nearly 20%, pushing prices deeply negative across large parts of Europe in the middle of the day. At the same time, a record breaking June heatwave lifted cooling demand and strained thermal and nuclear output, sending evening prices sharply higher in several markets. Layered on top of all this, ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz kept gas prices elevated and forward curves jumpy throughout the quarter.

This report walks through what happened, where it happened, and what Montel expects for the European power market in Q3.

Key takeaways

  1. Solar broke records again. Q2 solar output beat the previous high by close to 20%, and historic trends suggest Q3 could go even further.
  2. Negative prices moved south. The Nordics saw far fewer negative price events than last year, while Iberia, France and Greece experienced the most.
  3. June's heatwave hit hard. Limited thermal and nuclear output during the heatwave sent evening prices in France and Spain above 100 EUR per MWh, with Germany briefly exceeding 600 EUR per MWh.
  4. Gas prices are still elevated. Levels have eased since the immediate shock of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, but they remain well above pre conflict levels.
  5. Flexibility is quietly opting out. Some flexible generators and storage operators are avoiding negative price hours in the day ahead market, choosing intraday or balancing markets instead. This is pushing more volatility into shorter timeframes.

Who should download this report?

  • Traders and risk managers who need to understand where volatility is concentrated across European markets and why.

  • Asset owners and generators, particularly solar, thermal and flexible capacity operators navigating record output and curtailment decisions.

  • Corporate energy buyers looking to understand how weather and geopolitics are shaping cost exposure across their European portfolios.

  • Analysts and consultants benchmarking European market performance or advising clients on regional trends.

Why should you download this report?

  • A clear read on a genuinely unusual quarter. Two record breaking forces, solar output and heat driven demand, pulled prices in opposite directions at the same time.

  • Regional detail, not just a European average. See exactly where negative prices and price spikes are concentrated, and why that geography is shifting.

  • A grounded view of what is coming next. The Q3 outlook covers weather risk, gas market sensitivity and where the next pressure points are likely to emerge.

  • Full data tables included. Quarterly generation and day ahead price trends by country, going back to 2019.

  • Free to download, straight from Montel's own analyst team.