Geopolitical report: summer 2026

This report brings together Montel's geopolitical, gas, and market analysts to cover the Iran-US-Israel conflict's effect on Gulf transit risk, European storage levels heading into winter, and recent hybrid warfare incidents on European soil.

Inside the report

• Iran conflict status and outlook. What a truce would and wouldn't change for European energy prices

• Gas in the merit order. Why gas continues to set power prices, and what would actually reduce consumer exposure

• Europe's storage position. The data on current storage levels heading into winter, and LNG import scenarios for 1 November

• Turkey, Israel and the energy map after Assad. What's changed for oil, gas and electricity flows in the region

• Hybrid warfare in Europe. The latest instalment in Montel's series on incidents affecting European energy infrastructure

• Nordic interconnection dispute. What a disagreement over congestion revenues shows about EU enforcement mechanisms

• Hot spots. A roundup across the Middle East, Ukraine, and global trade

What you'll learn

• How the Iran conflict has affected shipping insurance premiums and Gulf transit costs

• Why gas continues to set European power prices despite representing a smaller share of the generation mix

• Current European gas storage levels heading into winter, including specific facility data, and what would be needed to close the LNG supply gap

• How the change in Syria has affected the regional balance between Turkey and Israel, and what this means for energy corridors

• Details of recent incidents affecting European infrastructure (including events at Ceuta, Leipzig Airport, and the Romanian-Bulgarian border) and how Montel's analysts assess them

• What the Nordic congestion revenue dispute reveals about EU energy governance

• A roundup of developments across the Middle East, Ukraine, and US tariff policy affecting China, Canada, and Brazil

Who this is for

• Energy traders and risk managers pricing geopolitical risk into oil, gas and power positions

• Procurement and corporate energy teams budgeting for energy costs

• Policy and regulatory professionals following EU energy market design and security debates

• Security, risk and resilience teams tracking incidents affecting European energy infrastructure

Written by Montel's geopolitical, gas markets, and Nordic analysts, alongside contributions from Energy Straits.