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Reports Geopolitical report May 2026

Geopolitical report May 2026

The global energy system is entering a more volatile era.

Montel’s Geopolitical Report May 2026 explores how these developments are reshaping energy markets, trade flows and security strategies around the world. Through expert analysis and scenario-based insight, the report helps you understand the geopolitical forces now driving power, gas and commodity markets.

Understand the geopolitical forces behind energy market volatility

Energy markets no longer respond only to supply and demand.

Today, prices and flows are increasingly shaped by:

  • Armed conflict and sanctions

  • Trade disputes and tariffs

  • LNG supply disruption

  • Pipeline sabotage and infrastructure risk

  • Strategic competition between global powers

  • Energy security and defence policy

  • Political instability across Europe and the Middle East

The Geopolitical Report May 2026 helps you connect these developments to real market outcomes, from gas prices and LNG flows to refinery operations and energy security planning.

What’s inside the report

  • Explore how the ongoing US-Iran conflict is disrupting global energy markets and exposing Europe’s economic and strategic vulnerabilities.
  • See how India is balancing diplomacy, supply diversification and energy transition goals as disruptions in Hormuz threaten oil, LNG and fertiliser imports.
  • Understand why Europe faces rising pressure to refill gas storage ahead of winter amid reduced Russian LNG supply and disruption to Qatari exports.
  • Learn why supplier reliability and geopolitical exposure are becoming as important as price and sustainability in Europe’s energy diversification strategy.
  • Discover how pipeline disruption, refinery vulnerability and critical infrastructure sabotage are emerging as major energy security concerns.
  • Track how elections in Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Romania could alter EU energy policy, sanctions and regional cooperation.

Key themes from the report

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical energy chokepoint

The report explores how disruption in Hormuz continues to impact global LNG and oil markets, increasing price volatility and supply insecurity.

Europe faces a more fragile gas market ahead of winter

Lower storage levels, reduced Russian LNG availability and uncertainty around Qatari supply are intensifying competition for global LNG cargoes.

Energy security now extends beyond supply diversification

The report argues that Europe must also manage counterparty risk, infrastructure resilience and geopolitical concentration.

Hybrid warfare is becoming an energy market risk

Sabotage threats, infrastructure attacks and political interference are increasing pressure on Europe’s energy systems and critical supply routes.

Energy transition and geopolitics are now deeply connected

The report shows how renewables, electrification and supply diversification are increasingly driven by security concerns as much as climate goals.

Why read Montel’s geopolitical report

Expert-led analysis

Written by Montel analysts and geopolitical experts covering global energy markets every day.

Market-focused insight

Connect geopolitical developments directly to power, gas, LNG and commodity market impacts.

Scenario-driven thinking

Explore how different political and market outcomes could affect energy prices, supply chains and infrastructure.

Clear, accessible intelligence

Complex geopolitical developments explained clearly for traders, analysts, investors and energy professionals.

Who this report is for

This report is designed for:

  • Energy traders

  • Market analysts

  • Risk managers

  • Utility companies

  • Renewable developers

  • Policy professionals

  • Commodity investors

  • Infrastructure and LNG stakeholders