PPA Price Monitor Freemium

Whether you're a: 

• Renewable energy developer 

• Corporate energy buyer 

• Utility or offtaker 

• Energy trader or consultant 

• Investor in clean energy markets 

This report gives you the pricing intelligence needed to make informed decisions and stay ahead of the curve.

• Daily forward price data for solar, onshore, and offshore wind 

• Reliable indices (REPI) based on real market settlement prices 

• Fair value assessments for 5-year fixed-price Pay-as-Nominated PPAs 

• Market signals to support hedging and procurement strategies 

• Transparent methodology based on publicly available data 

Use this report to: 

• Understand your PPA offers with reference to wider market prices 

• Plan procurement strategies 

• Assess the timing and value of energy sales 

• Support internal reporting  

• Provide PPA data inputs for investment models 

Our PPA Price Monitor freemium report relies on publicly available data to provide general market insights in the German energy market. The Renewable Energy Price Indices (REPI) from table 1 quantify the average profile value of an electricity delivery from a solar or wind plant for the period shown. The unit is Euro per megawatt hour. They are calculated from the product of the settlement prices and the base parity ratio (BPR). The settlement prices are used by the EEX. The relative profile value is called BPR and it already takes into account the non-feed-in at negative electricity prices. It is determined for this index on a rolling monthly, quarterly and annual basis from the last three maturities based on ENTSO-E and EPEX Spot data. The annual values are additionally corrected using the degression coefficient of the market value factors of the current EEG medium-term forecast on the basis of Netztransparenz. 

The fair value of a Pay-As-Nominated PPA considers (in addition to the price of the power) the structuring risk, hedging costs, and revenue from Guarantees of Origin (GOs). The valuation is based on a Day-Ahead schedule. The structuring risk is derived from Montel’s Power Price Scenario Swarms, a simulation which models weather and market volatility, with the P95 value of the structuring costs being subtracted. Hedging costs account for the costs of terminating market positions, and for less liquid maturities (Y+4 and Y+5). The price is determined based on Y+3 plus the volume-weighted double standard deviation of historical spreads from Y+3 and Y+2 (rolling hedge). The value for GOs reflects the latest settlement prices for GOs from Montel Match. To this purpose, the average settlement price over the next few years will be determined and considered. For onshore wind and offshore wind, the category ‘Wind’ was used for the valuation, and for solar, the category ‘Anytech’ was used. 

For periods of more than five years, PPAs are valued on the basis of Montel's long-term European power price scenarios. In addition, plants have individual profile values (BPRs) depending on their location and design, which can also be evaluated on the basis of the European power price scenarios. Other PPA design variants with cap and floor prices, fixed volume regulations or price adjustment formulas require in-depth, data-based analysis and risk assessment. Montel advises market players on these issues as an independent energy market expert.