Q4 2025 Outlook: Long-term market expectations for EU & Nordic power

Webinar overview

In this webinar, we will first introduce the modelling approaches behind the two Outlooks – the Power2Sim model (used for the European markets) and the EMPS model (used for the Nordics). This short introduction will help you understand the methodology and key assumptions that underpin our long-term reports. We will also briefly discuss the different price scenarios.

For the European Outlook, Josephine Steppat will present the new assumptions for the European power price scenarios, reflecting a comprehensive revision of the commodity pathways for gas, coal, CO₂, and oil, based on the new IEA World Energy Outlook. Beyond global energy trends, the update also incorporates recent policy and market developments, including national adjustments in power demand projections, renewable capacity targets, and generation capacities. The focus markets are France, Great Britain, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, and the Netherlands.

For the Nordic Outlook, Liubov Koroleva will introduce the modelling framework and provide an overview of ongoing scenario updates and developments.

Finally, we examine the impact of the changes on the European and Nordic baseload and capture prices, as well as on the volatility of the electricity markets.

Themes covered in the webinar

In this webinar, we present the latest quarterly updates of Montel's European and Nordic electricity price reports.

• Understand the modelling approaches behind “Power2Sim” from Montel Energy Brainpool and the “EMPS” model using by Montel SKM.

• Explore scenario highlights for key European and Nordic markets

• Gain insight into the revised assumptions for commodity price development based on the new IEA World Energy Outlook

• Regional market updates: Important changes in France, Great Britain, Poland, Hungary, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries with regard to adjustments in electricity demand, flexibilities and generation capacities.

• Review updates to baseload and capture price developments across both regions

What you will learn in the webinar

• How Montel's Power2Sim model and the EMPS model work and map long-term interactions between generation, demand, commodity prices and market prices.

• What the new IEA World Energy Outlook assumptions for gas, coal, oil and CO₂ are and how they change long-term electricity price expectations in Europe.

• Which regional developments – e.g. in France, Poland, the UK, Hungary and the Nordic countries – are integrated into Montel's power price scenarios.

• What impact the new assumptions have on baseload and capture prices (solar & wind) and on the volatility of electricity markets.

• How the scenarios can be used to better assess long-term price risks and market trends and make more informed strategic decisions.

Who should attend this webinar?

• Asset owner

• Direct marketer

• Project developmer

• Investors

• Banks

• Industry