Long-term power price outlook: the Nordics and Continental Europe
Join us for a focused 30-minute session exploring the long-term price outlook for electricity markets from Montel in both the Nordic region and Continental Europe. This presentation will combine cutting-edge modelling approaches with expert market insights to shed light on possible future price paths.
We will start with a brief introduction outlining the geographical coverage of both market reports and explain why long-term simulations are crucial for understanding electricity price developments.
The first part will cover the Nordic market, covered by the the EMPS model a cornerstone tool for long-term forecasting in the Nordic region. The Long-Term Power Outlook (LTPO) for the Nordic market will be explained including key scenarios, assumptions, and reporting structure.
The second part will shift focus to Continental Europe, where we will introduce the Power2Sim fundamental model, its methodological underpinnings, and the parameters considered by the model. We will also explore the range of European power price scenarios, including scenario worlds and your “Swarm” approach – a sensitivity analyses that highlight potential risks and opportunities coming from commodities and demand changes.
Whether you are a trader, investor, analyst, policymaker, IPP or energy market professional, this session will equip you with a deeper understanding of the modelling tools and scenario thinking that underpin long-term electricity price projection.
Agenda:
Opening Remarks & Introduction (ca. 5 minutes)
- An overview of the geographical and thematic scope
- The importance of long-term simulations for electricity prices
Nordic Market Outlook (ca. 13 minutes)
- The EMPS model: how it works and its role in long-term forecasting
- Long-Term Power Outlook (LTPO): scenarios, assumptions and reports
European Market Outlook (ca. 12 minutes)
- The Power2Sim fundamental model: model approach and parameters
- European Power Price Scenarios: scenarios worlds and sensitivity calculations
