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  1. Price Forward Curves
  2. Monte Carlo energy market simulations
  3. Valuations
  4. Power price scenario swarms

Monte Carlo energy market simulations

Calculate portfolio risks, optimise asset production and create hedges with simulations made for a range of energy commodities.

Overview

Based on a sound mathematical framework, our Monte Carlo energy market simulations run multiple scenarios to help you find the price of energy commodities at defined points along a time curve.

Customisation options:

From 1000-20000 paths (5000 as standard)

Depending on the project - any time horizon in the future is possible.

Spot and/or future market.

Daily, weekly, monthly.

Power, gas, CO2 & coal, oil for many European markets.

Enhancing decision-making with advanced simulations

Monte Carlo simulation methods

Monte Carlo simulations enable the precise valuation and optimisation of power plants, support decision-making processes through the calculation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Profit at Risk (PaR), as well as allowing you to budget through detailed scenario analyses.

By modelling a wide range of possible outcomes, these simulations provide a robust framework for managing uncertainties in the energy market. Our techniques allow us to model adequate correlations, co-integrations, and volatilities of different markets and underlying assets. This ensures that our simulations reflect realistic market behaviours and dependencies. 

  • Multifactor models: Capture various factors influencing market dynamics. 

  • Kalman filtering: Enhance the accuracy of model predictions. 

  • Local regression: Adapt to local data trends for more precise outcomes. 

Multi-market simulations

Integrated market analysis

Simultaneously considering multiple markets helps capture dependencies arising from cross-border interactions. Integrated commodity simulations ensure stable calculations of the Dark Spread and the Spark Spread, which are crucial for analysing and optimising assets in energy markets. This comprehensive approach highlights the overall effect of your risk portfolio, ensuring that relationships and impacts are clearly understood. 

  • Cross-border dependencies: Understand market interdependencies. 

  • Dark and Spark Spread calculations: Optimise asset performance. 

  • Stable simulations: Ensure reliable market analysis. 

Calibration services

Ensuring accuracy and reliability

Calibration services are a crucial aspect of energy simulations. Our monthly calibration service, meticulously reviewed by analysts, ensures that simulation models accurately represent real-world energy systems.

This process accounts for changes in the system or environment, maintaining the integrity and accuracy of the simulations. By investigating worst-case scenarios and maintaining a list of significant risks, this service supports comprehensive risk management and strategic planning. 

  • Monthly calibration: Regular updates to reflect real-world conditions. 

  • Quality assurance: Rigorous checks to ensure data integrity. 

  • Reliable simulations: Enhance the validity of your energy market forecasts.

Delivery methods

High-quality PFCs provided as a data service. Subscribe to have PFCs covering any cross-commodity portfolio at your disposal at any time using just a log-in. 

Get price simulation data via our in-house software. Choose to add the seasonality tool & price database, calibration tool or model reference via our data service.

Install the software locally to view Monte Carlo energy market simulations within your specific product.

Data sent to you directly via our secure file transfer protocol provider.

Try simulations for free

Get in touch with our product experts so we can build the exact package to meet your needs.

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