Product Updates

As part of the Q3-2026 update of our power price scenarios, we will introduce a fundamentally enhanced modelling framework reflecting the ongoing integration of Montel Energy Brainpool and Montel Syspower. This update represents a significant methodological step towards a fully harmonised and pan-European long-term power market outlook.

Integrated modelling framework: EMPS and Power2Sim

The updated scenarios are based on an integrated modelling architecture that combines the strengths of two established fundamental models:

• EMPS provides a high-resolution, energy-based representation of the Nordic and Baltic power systems, with detailed modelling of generation structure, demand, hydrology and reservoir management. It is designed to analyze medium- and long-term price formation and system dynamics in energy-constrained power markets.

• Power2Sim serves as the European fundamental market model, ensuring a consistent representation of the continental European power system, including cross-border power flows, unified fuel and CO₂ price assumptions, capacity expansion pathways and long-term demand developments.

The coupling of EMPS and Power2Sim enables a coherent modelling of price formation across Europe, linking detailed regional dispatch in the Nordics and Baltics with a harmonised European market framework.

Harmonisation of assumptions and scenario logic

A core objective of the Q3-2026 update is the harmonisation of key modelling assumptions and scenario logic across regions. This includes, among others:

• Consistent assumptions for fuel prices, CO₂ prices and technology cost developments

• Aligned demand growth trajectories and electrification pathways

• A unified representation of renewable capacity expansion, storage technologies and interconnector developments

This harmonisation ensures a high degree of internal consistency between the former long-term scenario frameworks of Montel Energy Brainpool and Montel Syspower, improving comparability across countries and regions.

Transition to a common scenario world

Historically, the Nordic–Baltic power price scenarios and the European power price scenarios were based on different scenario storylines, reflecting region-specific modelling approaches and analytical perspectives. While internally consistent within each regional framework, these differing narratives limited direct comparability between the results of our regional reports.

With the Q3-2026 update, we are taking a decisive step towards a common scenario world. The updated scenarios are developed within a shared set of overarching storylines that define consistent assumptions for policy development, decarbonisation pathways, electrification, demand growth and technology deployment across Europe, including the Nordic and Baltic markets.

 This transition marks the first release of jointly defined European and Nordic-Baltic scenarios. Regional price dynamics continue to reflect structural differences in generation portfolios, hydrology and system flexibility, but they are now embedded in a unified scenario narrative. As a result, scenario outcomes can be interpreted and compared consistently across regions, time horizons and market contexts.

Transparency and analytical robustness

The revised modelling framework enhances transparency by clearly distinguishing between regional model components and European-wide assumptions. All major methodological changes introduced with the Q3-2026 update will be documented and communicated transparently, enabling users to fully understand the drivers behind scenario results and to assess their robustness.

Release and outlook

The integrated European power price scenarios will be released with the Q3-2026 update and will form the basis for a unified long-term outlook covering both continental Europe and the Nordic-Baltic region. Further methodological refinements are already planned as part of the ongoing integration process and will be communicated in future updates.

Our latest quarterly update to the European power price scenarios has now been implemented. This Q4 2025 update refines our commodity price assumptions, deepens the hydrogen narrative, and recalibrates key national inputs to give you a clearer view of long-term price levels and risks.

• Updated commodity and CO₂ price assumptions
  For this update, we align our long-term fuel price paths with the IEA World Energy Outlook 2025. While “Tensions” and “GoHydrogen” follow the updated NZE pathway, the “Central” scenario continues to use the WEO 2024 CO₂ and fuel price assumptions to ensure continuity and comparability with previous analyses.

• Hydrogen-linked gas pricing and scenario continuity
  In the medium term, European gas prices are linked more closely to global LNG markets, with US LNG as the main reference. From 2050, gas turbines are assumed to run more and more with green hydrogen. This reflect the rising share of hydrogen in power generation, leading to higher long-term fuel cost levels than in previous outlooks, where we assume the WEO prices after 2050. To underpin this shift, we now use Montel’s new HyPE model as the basis for long-term hydrogen costs, which in turn anchor our post-2050 gas price assumptions.

• Scenario refinements: Central, Tensions, GoHydrogen and sensitivity
  The “Central” scenario continues to reflect national climate targets and a strongly decentralised, renewables-driven system with rising flexible demand. The “Tensions” scenario assumes intensified geopolitical and social frictions, higher gas and CO₂ prices, and a slower energy transition. “GoHydrogen” models an accelerated transformation towards climate neutrality with a leading role for hydrogen in industry, transport and heating. In addition, the “Central Delayed EEG” sensitivity now explicitly captures the impact of slower renewable expansion in Germany and its spill-over effects on neighbouring markets.

• Country-level fleet and demand updates
  We have updated thermal and renewable capacity pathways for several countries, including the UK, Italy, Spain, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria, based on the latest ERAA, TYNDP and national scenario data. These changes affect both security-of-supply assessments and regional price levels, with particularly noticeable price effects in parts Eastern Europe, while in Central and South Europe the price effect are small. Demand profiles have also been revised to reflect updated expectations for electrolysers, heat pumps and electromobility. 

• Enhanced flexibility, volatility and capture price analysis
  The updated scenarios show a further shift from inflexible to flexible demand, with flexible loads reaching around one-third of total demand by mid-century. In parallel, we improve the treatment of large-scale battery storage and its interaction with high renewable feed-in hours, leading to higher capture prices. Finally, we provide some detail on price volatility and capture prices for wind and solar, highlighting cannibalisation effects in the 2030s and the stabilising role of flexible demand after 2040.

We are excited to announce a significant expansion of our green price forward curves, now covering three key Southern and Eastern European markets: Italy, Spain, and Romania.

Supporting market evolution across Europe

To support the ongoing evolution of European energy markets, we have added Italy, Spain, and Romania to our European portfolio of green power forward curves. This expansion reflects our commitment to comprehensive coverage across the continent’s diverse electricity markets.

Strategic market coverage

These three markets represent important additions to our product suite:

• Italy: One of Europe’s largest electricity markets with substantial renewable capacity and growing green power demand

• Spain: A leader in renewable development with significant solar and wind generation

• Romania: An emerging market with rising renewable penetration and increasing cross‑border trading activity

Enhanced portfolio for market participants

With this expansion, clients gain access to forward pricing signals across a broader range of European markets, enabling more sophisticated hedging strategies and improved portfolio management across Southern and Eastern Europe.

Our green price forward curves for these markets provide reliable pricing signals grounded in market fundamentals and trading activity, supporting informed decision‑making in an increasingly complex energy landscape.

We are pleased to announce the launch of price forward curves for Ireland, adding a strategically important market to our portfolio.

A dynamic and growing market

Ireland’s electricity market has grown significantly in recent years, driven largely by surging demand from data centres operated by Google, Microsoft, and Meta. This expansion makes the Irish market increasingly relevant for energy market participants and sustainability-focused businesses.

Understanding the Single Electricity Market (SEM)

Despite the political division of the island, Ireland’s electricity market operates as a unified system. Both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland participate in the Single Electricity Market (SEM), with day-ahead and intraday trading managed by SEMOpx.

The Irish power market has several distinctive characteristics stemming from its close ties to the British electricity system. Notably, the delivery day runs from 23:00 local time on the previous day until 22:59. While most European markets participating in Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC) transitioned to 15-minute products on October 1, 2025, the SEM remains the only SDAC market whose smallest trading unit is 30 minutes.

Forward market development

Since November 2024, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) has offered power futures for the SEM, with base futures available for six consecutive months, seven consecutive quarters, and six consecutive years.

Our HPFC based on EEX IE settlement

Our new forward curve product is built on a robust foundation that combines historical spot price patterns from SEM day-ahead auctions with current EEX settlement prices for Irish SEM power futures. This approach provides market participants with reliable pricing signals for a rapidly evolving market.

We’re making some important improvements to how you access Montel’s editorial content. From 30.09.2025, Montel News and Montel Online will each provide a clearer experience tailored to your needs.

What’s new?

• Montel News (montelnews.com) – A curated entry-level service with essential energy stories, broader market coverage, and selected data insights. Designed to be more accessible and easier to follow, including on mobile and tablet.

• Montel Online – Our full professional service for energy specialists. Includes everything from Montel News plus live market updates, price data, REMIT notices, historical datasets, and advanced charting tools.

What this means for you

• Montel News will give a straightforward overview of the most important market developments, perfect if you want the key stories at a glance.

• Montel Online will remain the comprehensive service for professionals who need real-time information, deep data, and advanced analysis.

We believe this change makes it clearer what you can expect from each service, whether you just want the essentials or the full depth of Montel’s coverage.

Our latest quarterly update to the European power price scenarios has now been implemented. In this update, we have implemented key analytical and structural improvements to provide you with more in-depth insights and greater clarity.

• Revised battery storage assumptions
  We have updated our assumptions on battery storage capacity and power across Europe. The new assumptions are based on up-to-date data sources, including the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERRA), the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), and various national studies. This results in more realistic modelling and a more precise evaluation of flexibility options in the power market.

• New revenue benchmark analysis for battery storage in Germany 
  For the first time, our reports include a free sensitivity analysis for revenue benchmarking of battery storage in Germany. This provides you with an interval showing the potential revenues from a 10 MW battery system with various storage depths. Additionally, we offer a detailed delivery analysis as an optional add-on that can be booked flexibly as needed.

• Country-level updates for France and Poland
  We have also updated our country-specific assumptions. In France, we made substantial changes to renewable capacity and demand development to better reflect market realities. In Poland, we slightly adjusted the assumptions for renewable energy capacities.

• New redesigned reporting structure
  Our reports now feature a new design and restructured layout, aimed at improving navigation, enhancing the accessibility of relevant content, and reducing the time needed for your analysis.

Able to display the data available in Montel Online, energy traders, analysts and energy managers from energy intensive industries are finding uses for Montel’s data feeds.

This includes data from more than 20 energy exchanges and brokers from around the world. As the energy transition continues to transform these uncertain markets, more and more businesses are realising the value of this information.

• Direct integration into your systems
  Live exchange prices and fundamental data for power, gas, coal, oil, carbon, and other environmental markets can be fed directly into your systems and spreadsheets. Subscribers also gain access to live orders and trades, historical trades, end-of-day prices, and volumes.

• Excel Feeder and WebAPI tools
  Montel’s Excel Feeder and WebAPI solutions allow users to integrate live market prices directly with their own datasets for advanced analysis. With real-time data, (for example, German front-month power from exchanges like EEX) analysts can track contract prices, monitor fundamentals like power flows and gas storage, and apply pre-built templates for spark and dark spread calculations.

• Benefits for decision-making
  By combining live data with in-house analysis, energy professionals can identify trends faster and make more informed hedging and procurement decisions. This ensures businesses are equipped with the insights they need to navigate volatile markets confidently.

In response to the unique challenges posed by the Dutch imbalance markets, Montel Analytics has launched a new tool to help market participants deal with dual imbalance pricing.

Montel EnAppSys, part of our Analytics offering, has launched a revamped Dutch Balancing Market Analysis tool. This enhanced functionality provides invaluable insights into the causes of dual imbalance prices and passive balancing dynamics, empowering energy market participants with the knowledge needed to navigate this landscape effectively.

• Granular price sensitivities
  Detailed charts offer a closer look at balancing market price sensitivities throughout the day, updated constantly.

• Live data
  Access to real-time data in minutely granularity enabling timely decision-making. 

• Calculation capabilities
  Live calculations of balancing price, balance delta coefficient, and estimated passive balancing actions provide deeper analytical capabilities, for use in real-time or historical analysis.

This product update comes with no additional cost for existing Montel EnAppSys customers, providing added value and support in navigating balancing risks.