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E-books Winter power price outlook for France and Western Europe

Winter power price outlook for France and Western Europe

Will volatility return this winter or has calm become the new normal?

This e-book analyses the key risks and price drivers for the 2025–26 winter season across France and neighbouring power markets. Backed by real data and expert insight, it offers a clear view of what to expect in the months ahead.

Download your free copy now.

What’s inside?

Montel’s latest outlook explores how temperature, supply conditions, and market structure will shape prices this winter.

You’ll learn:

  • How France’s strong nuclear output supports price stability

  • What low hydro levels and uneven gas storage mean for regional risk

  • Why Germany and the UK face higher volatility

  • What forward prices are signalling for Q1 2026

  • How the end of the ARENH mechanism could affect France’s market

If you’re trading, planning, or managing risk this winter, this report is essential reading.

Who should read this?

This report is built for:

  • Power traders and analysts forecasting winter price moves

  • Utilities and suppliers managing risk and procurement

  • Policymakers and regulators tracking supply adequacy

  • Market watchers following Europe’s winter readiness

Key takeaways

  1. France is well-positioned for winter 2025–26 High nuclear availability, moderate demand, and ample gas storage support stability.
  2. Hydro risk is uneven across Europe France and Austria show low reservoir levels, while Switzerland offers a buffer. Conditions may shift quickly with winter rainfall.
  3. Germany remains exposed to gas risk Lower storage and gas dependence have pushed Q1 2026 prices back towards EUR 100/MWh.
  4. Volatility is still likely, just not where you expect France’s prices may stay stable, but real-time markets across Europe could see sharp swings due to local shortages or weather events.
  5. Regulatory changes could affect long-term pricing France’s new nuclear revenue-sharing mechanism replaces ARENH from 2026, with thresholds set around EUR 78–110/MWh.

FAQ

  • Margins would tighten across Europe. France could remain stable, but neighbouring countries may face price spikes and import needs.
  • Only slightly. Growth in electrification remains slower than expected. France’s demand rose just 1.6% year-on-year.