PPA portfolios: Monte Carlo values, hedges and co-located BESS

Managing PPA portfolios webinar overview

Dr. Erik Schreck and Marc Hasenbeck from price[it] will show an advanced approach to manage regenerative assets in a financial-mathematical framework.

Wind- and PV-parks’ production exhibit risk due to uncertainty in volumes and prices. Furthermore, the volumes depend on the individual site and thus the correlation to the common prices is different for each asset.

What will the managing PPA portfolios webinar cover?

We’ll show how to simulate the output of onshore wind sites and value that output using recent market prices and volatility patterns. We’ll use Monte Carlo simulations, running thousands of “what-if” scenarios to estimate the prices a site is likely to earn (not just the market average), based on how that site behaves compared with the wider fleet. This also lets us calculate easy-to-understand risk measures, such as the range of possible revenues. We’ll include a short, similar example for a solar (PV) park too.

During a practical use case, multiple wind parks will be compared and combined into a portfolio. The portfolio will be valued and its risk analysed for spot and balancing exposures after hedging on the futures market. We will also show how a co-located battery affects risk metrics such as capture rate and profit-at-risk.

Themes covered in our managing PPA portfolio webinar

Join us for a practical session on how to value wind farms, hedge price risk, and manage a financial portfolio.

1. How we model wind output

We’ll use Monte Carlo simulations (lots of “what-if” runs) to reflect real weather patterns in one simple framework.

2. Capture rates explained

See how an individual site’s output lines up with market (spot) prices, and what that means for the price you earn.

3. Hedging made simple

Learn how to size and check a hedge position and understand the risks that remain after your hedge.

4. Profit-at-risk (PaR)

A clear way to see how much revenue could swing because of spot-price moves.

5. Balance-at-risk (BaR)

Understand exposure to the balancing market, what it is, why it appears, and how big it might be.

6. Adding a co-located battery

How a battery on site can change risk, revenue, and capture rate and when it pays off.

What will you learn in our managing PPA portfolios webinar?

• How Monte Carlo simulations help quantify wind-farm risk within a portfolio management framework.

• Evaluate capture rates in an hourly spot market approach

• Learn to link individual sites to the fleet which influence the price-building process

• How to measure risk across different market stages, such as the spot and balancing markets.

• The impact of a co-located battery on a wind farm’s risk metrics.

Who should attend our managing PPA portfolios webinar?

• · Asset Owners

• · Portfolio Management

• · Direct Marketers

• · Project Developers

• · Investors