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EU Energy Outlook - Update Q2-2025

EU Energy Outlook update Q2-2025 recording description

Get a clear, data-driven view of Europe’s long-term power market. In this Q2 2025 update, Montel’s analysts unpack scenario modelling, refreshed assumptions and price projections stretching to 2065 across Central Europe and the Nordics.

EU Energy Outlook update Q2-2025 recording overview

  • What’s new in the Q2 2025 update: key storyline changes and updated input assumptions that shape long-term price paths.

  • Outlook to 2065: power price projections and sensitivities to help stress-test strategies and PPAs.

  • Regional coverage and models: Central Europe (Power2Sim) and the Nordics (EMPS).

  • Analyst commentary and Q&A to translate modelling into actionable insights.

Who should watch the EU Energy Outlook update Q2-2025 webinar recording?

  • Energy traders, analysts and risk managers seeking robust long-term scenarios.

  • Utilities, IPPs and developers evaluating investments, hedging and asset optimisation.

  • Corporate buyers and PPA/portfolio managers comparing contract tenors and capture prices.

  • Banks, investors and advisors assessing market trajectories and financing assumptions.

  • Policy and regulatory teams tracking structural drivers in EU power markets.

EU Energy Outlook - update Q2 - 2025 - programme

Introduction to the model behind or long-term Power Price Scenarios

  • Central Europe (Power 2 Sim)

  • Nordics (EMPS)

The storyline behind the different Variants

  • 'Central, Tension and GoHydrogen' in Central Europe

  • Assumptions for the Nordics

Updates to additional assumptions and input parameters

  • Fuel and carbon price curves (TTF, coal, EUA)

  • Demand growth and electrification (EVs, heat pumps, data centres)

  • Renewable build rates, capex and constraints (onshore/offshore wind, solar)

  • Firm capacity changes: nuclear lifetimes, coal/gas retirements, CCS readiness

  • Interconnector additions and grid bottlenecks

Results: European power prices up to 2065

  • Country-level baseload and peak price paths across scenarios

  • Wind and solar capture prices and cannibalisation effects

  • Volatility and shape: seasonal swings, hourly extremes, scarcity events

  • Spark/dark spreads and implications for CCGT/coal dispatch

Questions and answers

  • Model calibration, validation, and data sources

  • How and why the scenarios differ; when to use each

  • Treatment of negative prices and scarcity pricing

  • Nordic hydrology sensitivities and reservoir operations