New Polish President, same old power sector problems?

The country has undergone substantial change over the past decade to accelerate decarbonisation. While more than 10 GW of onshore wind and almost 23 GW of solar PV may not seem impressive at first glance, the growth rate is remarkable. Since the beginning of 2017, onshore wind capacity has nearly doubled, while solar PV has increased 230-fold.  These technologies, together with minor contributions from biomass and hydropower, accounted for 29% of the country’s electricity generation last year.

The solar boom is a testament to the success of rooftop support schemes. However, the slower onshore wind deployment can be attributed to a distance rule introduced in 2016. 

But the arrival of a new president – whose statements suggest a somewhat cautious stance on green development – could signal a turbulent period ahead for Poland’s energy sector. 

So, which way will the Polish president go? Let’s look at the most pressing challenges facing Polish renewables, the new leader’s views on the country’s energy generation mix and what factors are likely to impact energy prices. 

Bearish onshore wind 

Right-wing Karol Nawrocki is the new president-elect after winning 50.9% of the 1 June vote, compared with 49.1% for Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, a difference of just under 370,000 votes. 

Nawrocki was backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which initiated several measures supporting the energy transition, including the rooftop solar support scheme. However, it also introduced the distance rules for onshore wind, effectively banning almost all new installations.  

The president-elect hasn’t announced a comprehensive vision for the energy sector. But we can make some inferences based on the positions of his supporting party and his own statements. 

To begin with, he opposes a top-down government approach to shortening the onshore wind minimum distance rule from 700m to 500m. Although many associations and developers advocated for this reduction, the outgoing coalition failed to complete the legislative process. Nawrocki has signalled that he will not support this change but suggested local authorities should have the option to allow a 500m distance where they deem it appropriate. 

Experts such as Krzysztof Dresler of leading Polish bank PKO BP, have noted that the country has an oversupply of solar capacity relative to wind, which poses challenges for system balancing and discourages further solar expansion. This imbalance is likely to persist under Nawrocki’s presidency. 

In addition, Nawrocki has expressed opposition to the current levels of subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs). This could slow the growth of Poland’s EV fleet, adversely affecting the country’s ability to mitigate negative power prices. It could also reduce reliance on non-market redispatch – power generation adjusted outside of the market mechanism, typically at a cost to the grid operator or government rather than through market prices. Non-market redispatch is an increasingly serious issue in the Polish energy system and continues to rise each quarter due to the energy system’s limited flexibility.

Bullish nuclear and coal 

On the other hand, Nawrocki is supportive of nuclear power, both from traditional plants and small modular reactors (SMRs). 

He has pledged to back the construction of three nuclear plants by 2045, the first by 2035. This is a more ambitious schedule than outlined in Poland’s current national energy and climate plan, which targets 7.4 GW nuclear capacity by 2040 through two plants and supplementary SMRs. If Nawrocki’s vision is realised, it would entail bringing forward the first plant by two years and reaching 4.8 GW in SMRs.

However, this timeline may be unrealistic. The 2035 launch date already seems overly optimistic, given prevailing market conditions and persistent delays seen in comparable projects such as Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 and Hinkley Point C in the UK. 

Depending on operational choices – baseload versus load-following – and the scale of renewables deployment, even one nuclear power plant could be enough to enhance system stability without imposing long-term financial strain on the state. 

Meanwhile, the narrative portraying coal as a national treasure looks set to continue. Nawrocki supports coal extraction until 2050, despite its declining economic viability and growing conflict with EU climate policy. Without breakthroughs in cost-cutting for deep-bed mining or advances in carbon capture and storage, Poland risks continuing to extract coal simply for it to pile up, unused. 

The road ahead 

Despite political pressures and shifting leadership, broader market trends and technological advancements continue to drive Poland’s energy transformation. As Paweł Czyżak, regional lead at environmental think tank Ember, aptly remarked: “The energy transition does not bow to politicians.” This rings particularly true when considering that, between 2015 and 2025, coal and lignite’s share in Poland’s energy mix has fallen by 19 percentage points. 

While political rhetoric may continue to favour coal to appease certain constituencies, the steady rise of renewables and the rapid growth of supporting technologies like battery storage suggest that Poland’s energy transition is largely being shaped by market forces. As Nawrocki prepares to take office in August, his leadership will influence how quickly Poland adapts to these changes. Like the Polish eagle that adorns its coat of arms, Nawrocki will need to decide which way to face. With his cautious stance on renewables and nuclear support, the coming months will be pivotal in determining whether his presidency accelerates or hinders the pace of the country’s energy transition.

This article originally appeared as a column on www.montelnews.com