Navigating the Queue for Grid Connection in the GB Electricity Market
The GB electricity market faces a critical challenge in achieving Clean Power by 2030, as an overwhelming backlog of grid connection applications threatens to delay essential projects.
The queue for grid connection in the GB electricity market
To meet its target to be on track for Clean Power by 2030, the GB electricity system faces a paradox in that investment in the transmission system and connection of generation to the system will be required at a scale that has been described as “Herculean,” yet connections to the network for the required projects are blocked by too many projects already in the queue.
In this article, we explore what the existing queue for connections to the GB electricity transmission network looks like, analyse how we got to the current situation, and identify the changes being proposed in order to meet targets for net zero and being on track for clean power by 2030.
The current state of grid connection in GB
There is currently ~100GW of generation and interconnector capacity already built or under construction that holds connection capacity to the GB electricity transmission system. Under the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) pathways published by the National Energy System Operator (NESO), ~350GW capacity is expected to be connected to the system by 2050.
However, the current connections register includes ~700GW of projects seeking connection capacity to the transmission network—highlighting a significant bottleneck in the system.
The clean power 2030 goal and its challenges
The Clean Power 2030 advice, recently published by NESO, sets out the steps required to decarbonise electricity supply by 2030. NESO describes the scale of this task as “Herculean.”
Clean power 2030 challenges:
Building all planned transmission networks on time, doubling the output achieved over the last decade within the next five years.
Reforming the connections process to align with clean power goals and future strategic plans.
Understanding the grid connection queue
The existing queue for grid connections has ballooned to over 700GW of generation capacity. This far exceeds the capacity expected to be required under the Future Energy Scenarios (350GW by 2050) and the Clean Power 2030 pathway.
How did the existing queue for grid connections develop?
The current queue developed under a first-come, first-served system where System Operators and Transmission Owners were required to offer connection capacity within three months of an application.
Additionally, the Connect and Manage derogation, introduced in 2010, enabled projects to connect ahead of wider system reinforcements, further accelerating the queue.
The impact of an unsustainable grid connection process
The industry regulator Ofgem has acknowledged that the current connections process, policies, and regulatory frameworks have contributed to:
An unsustainable volume of applications
Delays for projects and customers seeking grid connections
Proposed reforms to the grid connection process
Reforms aim to introduce a gated process where connection offers are subject to more rigorous assessments. Projects must meet the following criteria to proceed to Gate 2 status:
Readiness: Holding the required land and planning consent.
Alignment: Contributing to Clean Power 2030 goals.
Consistency: Compliance with the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP).
Analysis of Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) by generation type
Using Montel’s proprietary databases and NESO’s Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) Register, we provide the following insights:
Breakdown by generation technology
Storage Projects currently represent the largest source of connection requests, with capacity exceeding system requirements.
Figure 1 analysis of Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) by generation technology by year:
It can be seen that storage projects are the greatest source of connection capacity in the existing queue with aggregate capacity beyond the level expected to be required by the system
Transmission zones and capacity allocation
The GB transmission system is divided into 17 zones based on boundary transfer capabilities. Our analysis highlights the disparities and bottlenecks in specific zones across the network.
Figure 2 analysis of Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) by zone by year:
Figure 3 – zones defined by transmission boundaries:
Zones 8 (Yorkshire and Humberside) and 12 (East Anglia) are noted to be areas for which the connection queue is particularly large. These are the zones into which large offshore wind projects off the Yorkshire and East Anglia coasts are expected to connect to the transmission grid.
Reform is key to achieving clean power goals
The GB electricity market must address the significant backlog in grid connection applications to remain on track for net zero and Clean Power 2030 targets. Reforming the grid connection process, streamlining capacity allocation, and aligning projects with strategic energy goals will be essential to overcoming these challenges.
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