Europe's Energy Markets 2060: Scenarios, Trends, and Insights

Our EU Energy Outlook 2060 offers a comprehensive view of Europe's evolving energy markets, analysing factors including commodity prices, electricity demand, and power plant expansion to predict their effects on power prices through 2060. Here's a summary of key insights from the report:

EU Energy Outlook 2060: scenarios and coverage

Central scenarios:

• Central Baseline scenario based on current trends and policies.

• GoHydrogen: Focus on hydrogen as a transformative energy solution.

Geographic scope:

• EU-27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK.

• Key finding: Significant variation across national markets due to specific influences and conditions.

EU Energy Outlook 2060: Topics Explored

1. Development of power prices until 2060

• Long-term trends in electricity prices.

• Factors influencing price movements, including policy changes and market dynamics.

2. Generation structure of the future

• Transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

• Impacts of solar, wind, and emerging technologies on the energy mix.

3. Demand forecasts

• Electricity demand trends and their drivers.

• Influence of e-mobility, heat pumps, and technological advancements.

EU Energy Outlook 2060 key results: 

1. Failing to achieve energy transition goals could increase power prices by 50%

• If Europe fails to decarbonise power generation and CO2 prices stay high, electricity prices could average around €100/MWh in the coming decades (Tensions Scenario). By contrast, in a scenario where the energy transition goals are met, power prices average around €65/MWh (Central Scenario).
  

2. Negative prices decrease, but price volatility remains high

• Power prices will become more volatile, meaning there will be more hours with particularly high and particularly low prices. However, the number of hours with negative prices will decline sharply in the 2030s.
  

3. Power consumption in Europe to rise by more than 50% by 2040

• Power consumption in Europe will increase steadily over the next 35 years. By 2050, flexible consumption devices (e.g., electrolysers, heat pumps, and e-mobility) will account for about one-third of power use.

This EU Energy Outlook 2060 provides important insights for stakeholders to understand and prepare for the challenges and opportunities in Europe’s energy future.