Hydrogen is at the centre of Energy Brainpool’s new energy scenario to achieve European climate neutrality under the EU Green Deal. The scenario is therefore called GoHydrogen. In this white paper, the energy market experts describe the development path for Europe’s future energy supply. In particular, the goal of climate neutrality is to be achieved by 2050 through the use of green hydrogen as one of the main energy carriers in industry, transport and buildings.
In the new GoHydrogen scenario, the prices of the individual energy carriers are of central importance in order to achieve a climate-neutral hydrogen world in the energy sector. The decisive factor here is a continuously rising price for CO2 emission certificates. This creates incentives for CO2-neutral technologies. In addition to the prices for energy sources, a change towards green energy sources must also take place on the demand side, especially in energy-intensive industries.
The white paper provides answers to the questions: How can we achieve a climate-neutral hydrogen world? How will energy demand develop in the future main energy sectors of industry, transport and buildings? How will the new demand for electricity and hydrogen be met in the course of defossilisation? What is the import potential for hydrogen from regions outside Europe?
“We have calculated a total hydrogen demand of around 2,270 TWh for the year 2050,” says Huangluolun Zhou, analyst at Energy Brainpool. “Fuel cell trucks, climate-neutral steel from the direct reduction process, hydrogen-based heating systems to add energy to certain heat grids – these are energy-hungry applications where hydrogen technologies will play a key role. There is a whole range of options for the origin of hydrogen. Europe will not be able to manage without energy imports, says Zhou: “With 1,250 TWh, electrolysers in Europe produce slightly more than half of the green hydrogen – for the rest, imports from the MENA region, sub-Saharan Africa, Australia and South and North America are likely. The MENA countries are in a pole position due to convertible natural gas pipelines and geographical proximity to Europe.”
For each scenario, Energy Brainpool uses its proprietary fundamental software Power2Sim to model the energy market for each scenario.
