Power price forecasting methods May

How can electricity price trends be forecast?

Register for Power price forecasting methods May

Forecasting electricity prices is a fundamental part of all trading and investment activities in the electricity market. However, there are a wide range of forecasting methods. These vary in complexity and serve different purposes. Being able to interpret and evaluate forecasts correctly is the first step towards the making your activities more successful.

This training course will teach you how to:

Explain methods of forecasting electricity prices on the spot and futures markets

Apply technical analysis methods

Correctly interpret forecasting models

Develop forecasting strategies for different trading centres

Session 1: Fundamentals of price forecasting

Recap: fundamentals of how spot and forward markets work, merit order & electricity pricing
Recap: different price setting principles, including auctions and continuous trading
Comparison of electricity price forecasting methods: resource, cost, data base
Forecast vs simulation: the subtle difference

Session 2: The principle of spot price forecasting

Short-term power price forecasting using linear regression
Assessing the relevance of different price influences
The limitations of these methods

Session 3: Long-term price forecasting using fundamental models

How the merit order approach works
How the quality of the input parameters determines the quality of the output parameters
Examplary fundamental scenario

Session 4: Using chart formations

Line and candlestick charts
Creating and recognising seemingly insurmountable price levels
Trend lines and channels and their implications
Exercises

Session 5: Interpreting technical signals

Indicators: Moving Average, Relative Strength Index, Bollinger Bands and more
Deriving trading signals
Combination of technical signals
Exercises

Session 6: Analyse the markets

Analysing the current market situation (interactive)
Discussing price trends in the commodity and electricity markets

Speakers

Huangluolun Zhou

Expert

Huangluolun Zhou studied industrial engineering (B. Sc. and M. Sc.) with focus on electrical power engineering at the RWTH Aachen University. In his master thesis, he dealt with sensitivity analyses of the flexibility of cogeneration and power-to-heat in the European energy market. He has also worked as a business analyst in a technology and management consulting company and is founder and energy market consultant of a software company for energy market simulations. Since May 2021, Huangluolun Zhou has been working at Energy Brainpool GmbH & Co. KG focusing on fundamental analysis. He works on analysis and consulting projects. He also regularly conducts trainings on the electricity and energy industry and is an expert in scenario development and storage technologies.